Based on the performance of both alliances in the current Lok Sabha election at the Assembly level, the MVA (Maha Vikas Aghadi) is projected to have an edge in 20 out of 36 Assembly seats, while Mahayuti holds an advantage in 16 seats for the upcoming Assembly election in Maharashtra. When undivided Shiv Sena-BJP contested together, they led in 30 Assembly seats in the Lok Sabha 2019 results, with BJP securing victory in 16 and Shiv Sena in 14 seats during the subsequent Assembly election held in November of the same year.

The Assembly elections are set for October/November this year. The results hinge on factors like seat allocation, candidates, local issues, combined coalition votes, temporary concerns, and voter turnout. If MVA (with Congress, Sena-UBT, and NCP-SP) and Mahayuti (with BJP, Sena, and NCP) maintain their alliances, MVA currently holds a slight edge based on the recent Lok Sabha voting trends. However, MVA might not replicate Sena-BJP’s success in the 2019 Assembly election. In seven Assembly areas, both alliances are closely matched, with margins below 3 per cent, indicating potential changes in results.